First and last frost dates in Lake Elsinore, CA
At the selected station, the median last spring freeze is January 28. The median first fall freeze is December 18. Compare the 10%, 30% and 50% historical freeze probabilities below.
Spring and fall freeze dates
32°F / 0°CA 30% risk date leaves a smaller historical chance of a later spring freeze than the median. It is not a forecast or a guarantee.
Plan planting dates in Lake Elsinore
Select a freeze probability
The 10% date is a more cautious spring starting point. Tender crops may need warmer soil and nights too.
Calculate when to start seeds
Use the number of weeks on your seed packet to work backwards from a suitable outdoor date.
Check the local forecast
A normal describes the past. Check this year’s forecast before moving plants outdoors.
Indoor seed-starting dates by crop
Work backwards from an outdoor target of Feb 17: the selected spring freeze date plus an editable seven-day delay.
These are transplant-growing windows, not a recommendation to plant every crop on the same day. Adjust the outdoor target for your crop, soil temperature and local conditions.
| Crop | Time indoors | Illustrative sowing window | Your plan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tomatoes | 5–6 weeks | Jan 6 – Jan 13 | Plan tomatoes → |
| Peppers | 8–10 weeks | Dec 9 – Dec 23 | Plan peppers → |
| Eggplant | 8–10 weeks | Dec 9 – Dec 23 | Plan eggplant → |
| Broccoli | 4–6 weeks | Jan 6 – Jan 20 | Plan broccoli → |
| Lettuce | 2–4 weeks | Jan 20 – Feb 3 | Plan lettuce → |
| Cucumbers | 3–5 weeks | Jan 13 – Jan 27 | Plan cucumbers → |
Indoor durations: University of Maryland Extension. The seven-day delay is our example, not the university’s prescription. Your seed packet takes priority.
Calculate fall planting dates
Compare your seed packet’s days to maturity with the time before your selected fall freeze date.
Freeze dates by probability
Download these dates| Historical probability | Last spring freeze on or after | First fall freeze on or before | Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% — median | January 28 | December 18 | 324 days |
| 30% — lower risk | February 10 | December 10 | 303 days |
| 10% — more cautious | February 27 | December 1 | 277 days |
“Frost date” is common gardening shorthand. These NOAA figures describe air temperatures reaching 32°F; frost on leaves can occur under different conditions. The two tail probabilities do not give the probability of a completely freeze-free season.
Frost date questions
How we use the dataWhen is the last frost in Lake Elsinore?
The median last 32°F spring freeze at the selected station is January 28. The more cautious 10% date is February 27. Neither date predicts the weather in a particular year.
Can I plant tomatoes on the last frost date?
Use the date as one input. Tomatoes need warm soil, suitable nighttime temperatures, and hardening off. A 50% historical date still carries substantial freeze risk. Check your seed instructions, local extension guidance and current forecast.
Why do other websites show a different date?
Sites may use another station, reference period, temperature threshold or probability. This guide identifies the station and shows three probabilities so you can compare like with like.